Since the USAF declassified a bunch of UFO reports and admitted that unidentified aerial phenomena are a real thing that the government knows about and tracks, I have listened to a veritable buttload of podcasts and read a bevy of articles on the subject. The thing that is so frustrating to me about most of these is that they all assume that aliens visiting earth are the most likely explanation for these phenomena and take it as a given.

Using Occam’s Razor, I believe that this is by far the least likely scenario based on what we know. Here are all the things that would have to happen for this to be true.

There is another intelligent species of being somewhere in the universe: Based on various projections using variations on the Drake equation, the chances of this are either likely or zero, which means we have no idea.

That species has technology beyond our wildest imaginations: Total speculation, and the Fermi Paradox and Great Filter theories have a lot to say about how likely this may be.

Someone is actually able to find us out of all the planets in the universe, which is about as likely as accidentally finding a specific grain of sand out of all the grains of sand on earth.

Once they do locate us, they are able to travel here and it is either trivially easy for them to do so, OR they REALLY need or want something that is here so that it is worth the massive amounts of energy it would likely require, or both: this is related to point #2 and is pure speculation

Once they are here there seems to me only two options — a) they wish to remain concealed or to hide their presence in some way, or b) they do not care about concealing their presence.