Elon Musk’s creation of the United States Party after a rift with Trump could seriously hamper Republican candidates in the midterm elections, risking the party losing the House of Representatives.

The confrontation between US President Donald Trump and former ally Elon Musk shows no signs of ending. And no one knows how it could end, after Musk announced on July 5 that he was forming the United States Party to confront both Democrats and Republicans.

Many commentators believe that President Trump has a greater advantage. But the fact that billionaire Musk, the world’s richest man, was willing to spend a large amount of money to help Trump gain an advantage in the 2024 election and announced the formation of a new party could make the US President and his Republican allies worried.

President Trump said that Musk’s decision to form a third party was a “ridiculous idea”, arguing that such parties have never been successful in the US, “because the system doesn’t seem to be designed to accommodate that”. But his concerns also seemed to be reflected in his writing that Musk’s new party would only bring “complete destruction and chaos.”

Since publicly sparring with Trump, Musk has made two threats to Republicans in future elections. First, he announced that he would donate money to the re-election campaign of Rep. Thomas Massie, one of two Republicans who opposed the Big, Beautiful, and Unified Bill (OBBBA). He also threatened to fund opponents of Republicans who voted for the bill.

He then announced the formation of the America Party, criticizing both Democrats and Republicans for their role in the government’s massive budget deficit.

Elon Musk in Washington on January 20. Photo: AP

Elon Musk in Washington on January 20. Photo: AP

Lee Drutman, an analyst at Vox, said the first threat was not worth paying attention to. The analyst argues that Trump and his fellow Republicans will almost certainly receive support from the core Make America Great Again (MAGA) Republican voters in the 2026 midterms.

In the Republican primaries, Musk may be able to fund opponents to unseat OBBBA-supporting lawmakers, but it is unlikely to erode Trump’s loyal base.

However, the billionaire’s newly formed America Party could pose a much bigger problem for Republicans in the November 2026 midterms, as voter disillusionment with both parties grows.

The percentage of Americans who had an unfavorable view of both the Democratic and Republican parties was about 6% in 1994, but it had risen to 28% by 2013. In an April NBC News poll, about 38% of U.S. adults said that neither the Democratic nor the Republican parties were “fighting for them.”

77% of respondents also agreed that “nothing will change in this country until we elect a new generation of leaders in Washington.”

A third party backed by Elon Musk would almost certainly appeal to voters who are disillusioned with both major parties, observers say. “He would give disillusioned voters a chance to challenge the system, saying vote for us and you can make the entire Washington establishment panic,” Drutman warns.

In key battleground states, the Democratic and Republican candidates for House and Senate seats are often very close. If Musk’s America Party can attract a segment of one major party’s voters, the other party will benefit and could decide the fate of both houses of Congress.

“All he needs to do is fund a few third-party ‘troublemaker’ candidates in a few key states and districts. That way, Musk can exploit the inherent weakness of closely contested elections,” Drutman writes.

Many political strategists warn that Musk’s party could do the most damage to the Republican Party, since many of Musk’s supporters and his efforts to streamline government voted for Trump last year.

“Third parties don’t usually last long in American politics. But America’s Party could split the Republican vote, leading to a Democratic-dominated House of Representatives, at least in the short term,” Dafydd Townley, a US political expert, told Newsweek.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk (right) speaks on stage at a Donald Trump campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania, on October 5, 2024. Photo: AFP
Tesla CEO Elon Musk (right) speaks on stage at a Donald Trump campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania, on October 5, 2024. Photo: AFP

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and former chief strategist Steve Bannon have said Musk’s party would not pose a threat to the Trump administration or Republicans.

However, some of Trump’s allies have expressed concerns about the third party. Laura Loomer, a major influencer in the MAGA movement and close ally of Mr Trump, warned that Musk’s move to form a new party could alienate the Republican Party.