The Kansas City Chiefs may have dominated the AFC West in 2024—including a season sweep of the Las Vegas Raiders—but their victories over their division rival were anything but easy. Both matchups were decided by a single score, and the Chiefs leaned heavily on late-game execution to stay on top. Heading into 2025, the margin for error may be even smaller.

The Raiders are entering the new season with momentum and renewed talent. While their 2024 record showed only four wins, their offseason moves have placed them in a much better position—arguably one of the most improved teams in the league. For Kansas City, with a tough schedule ahead, the two matchups against Las Vegas are shaping up to be must-win games, especially if they want to secure playoff seeding or even another division title.

The two AFC West foes will meet first in Week 7, and again in a potentially pivotal Week 18 clash—a game that could be flexed to prime time if playoff implications arise.

Where the Chiefs still hold a clear edge is at quarterback, with Patrick Mahomes remaining the gold standard of the NFL. However, Geno Smith, now commanding the Raiders’ offense under head coach Pete Carroll, adds stability and experience that Vegas lacked last season. He may not match Mahomes play-for-play, but he’s a considerable upgrade over the carousel of QBs the Raiders trotted out in 2024.

Elsewhere on the field, Las Vegas has quietly built one of the most intriguing young offenses. Tight ends Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer bring dynamic energy and mismatch potential, outshining the aging Travis Kelce and the steady-but-unspectacular Noah Gray. In the backfield, Ashton Jeanty and a revitalized run scheme could cause headaches for even Kansas City’s elite defensive front.

The Chiefs’ defense, however, remains their strongest asset. Led by a ferocious line and a sticky secondary, Kansas City will look to pressure Geno Smith and contain the Raiders’ playmakers. That said, the offensive line battle may be the true deciding factor. Both teams boast solid units, and with clean pockets, each quarterback is more than capable of carving up defenses.

So how will it play out?

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Las Vegas steal a game this year. Their roster is deeper, their coaching is refreshed, and their motivation to take down the defending champs is at an all-time high. With Pete Carroll’s leadership and a chance to make a statement, don’t be shocked if the Raiders walk into Arrowhead Stadium and pull off an upset.

The Chiefs are still contenders—but their path to another AFC West crown may run straight through a Raiders team hungry to rewrite the story.